{"vintage":"August 2026","finalised":"5 August 2026","release":"11 August 2026","retrieved":"25 September 2026","quarters":["Jun 2026","Sep 2026","Dec 2026","Mar 2027","Jun 2027","Sep 2027","Dec 2027","Mar 2028","Jun 2028","Sep 2028","Dec 2028"],"published":[true,false,true,false,true,false,true,false,true,false,true],"shockStart":1,"forecastSource":"https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/outlook.html","baseline":{"RGDP":{"name":"Gross domestic product","definition":"Year-ended growth of seasonally adjusted chain volume gross domestic product.","unit":"Year-ended growth (%)","values":[1.9,1.65,1.4,1.45,1.5,1.55,1.6,1.6,1.6,1.7,1.8],"juneHistorical":false},"RHFCE":{"name":"Household consumption","definition":"Year-ended growth of seasonally adjusted chain volume household final consumption expenditure.","unit":"Year-ended growth (%)","values":[1.8,1.7,1.6,1.6,1.6,1.7,1.8,1.85,1.9,1.9,1.9],"juneHistorical":false},"RDI":{"name":"Dwelling investment","definition":"Year-ended growth of seasonally adjusted chain volume dwelling investment.","unit":"Year-ended growth (%)","values":[3.6,2.85,2.1,1.5,0.9,0.1,-0.7,-0.75,-0.8,-0.4,0.0],"juneHistorical":false},"RBI":{"name":"Business investment","definition":"Year-ended growth of seasonally adjusted chain volume business investment. 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per total hour response applied to the non-farm productivity forecast.","HSR":"Model saving ratio applied to the RBA household savings ratio; accounting definitions may differ.","TWI":"Nominal TWI response; baseline index multiplied by the percentage change.","Crude":"World oil-price response; baseline oil price multiplied by the percentage change.","RHDI":"Model household disposable income deflated by consumption prices.","NAENA":"Model average earnings response applied to non-farm average earnings.","GDPPC":"Derived from GDP and population growth. MARTIN\u2019s working-age population response proxies total population; age composition is held fixed."},"presets":[{"name":"Cash rate +1 percentage point","shock":"ncr","amount":2.5689204541401787},{"name":"Commodity prices +10%","shock":"wpcom","amount":1.6074872411612957},{"name":"Housing prices fall 5%","shock":"ph","amount":-4.5257996713313515},{"name":"Cash rate +1 point for a year","shock":"cash_rate_4q","amount":1}]},{"id":"dsge","name":"DINGO \u00b7 2026 released baseline","short":"DINGO","description":"Baseline solution released with Fink & Hambur (2026), extending the Gibbs\u2013Hambur\u2013Nodari model with separate mining-investment dynamics and updated parameter estimates. Uses baseline price rigidity, not the paper\u2019s alternative rigidity scenarios or the current internal RBA model. The cash rate responds endogenously after impact.","shocks":[{"id":"eps_g","name":"Government demand","unit":"%","sd":1.206079170315175,"active":true,"measurement":false,"sourceUnit":"standard deviations","displayFactor":1.206079170315175,"sizeDescription":"Innovation to the government demand process (percent of its steady-state scale), not the resulting GDP change."},{"id":"eps_a","name":"Stationary technology (inactive)","unit":"%","sd":0.0,"active":false,"measurement":false,"sourceUnit":"standard deviations","displayFactor":1,"sizeDescription":"Innovation to the stationary technology (inactive) process (percent of its steady-state scale), not the resulting GDP change."},{"id":"eps_mu","name":"Trend productivity","unit":"percentage points","sd":0.1264,"active":true,"measurement":false,"sourceUnit":"standard deviations","displayFactor":0.1264,"sizeDescription":"Innovation to the model quarterly rate process, in percentage points."},{"id":"eps_xi_h","name":"Labour 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model inflation is estimated using trimmed-mean CPI (RDP 2018-04, section 3.2 and Appendix A); four quarterly responses are summed for year-ended inflation.","RBI":"Non-housing sector investment, weighted by published model steady-state investment shares.","RMTPGDP":"The model foreign-output response is applied to the RBA trading-partner aggregate.","TWI":"Cumulative nominal appreciation; baseline index multiplied by the percentage change.","ToT":"Export-value minus export-volume response, less import-value minus import-volume response.","GDPPC":"Derived from GDP growth, holding population on the RBA baseline path. DINGO has no population shock response here."},"presets":[{"name":"Cash rate +1 percentage point","shock":"eps_r","amount":0.261468718951733},{"name":"Commodity prices +10%","shock":"eps_p_star_z","amount":1.585288522511097},{"name":"Dollar appreciates 10%","shock":"eps_psi","amount":1.8490387794569296}]}]}